▲ Employees at the dealing room of Woori Bank's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, celebrate on the 18th as the KOSPI closed above the 9,000-point mark for the first time in history. (Photo: Yonhap News)
Recent strength in the domestic stock market has led to high investment returns for the National Pension Service (NPS), with analysis suggesting that the projected depletion date of the pension fund has been pushed back by four to seven years.
However, experts point out that since limitations regarding the sustainability of the pension fund remain, there is a need to prepare for potential fund decreases, alongside concerns over investment returns such as the possibility of short-term shocks in the stock market.
According to an overview of the NPS's operational status and meeting materials from the Fund Management Committee in 2026, the NPS fund assets stood at approximately 1,526 trillion won as of the end of March this year, an increase of about 68 trillion won from 1,458 trillion won at the end of last year.
Of this total, domestic stocks accounted for 320.9 trillion won, an increase of more than 57 trillion won from the end of last year (263.7 trillion won). The proportion of domestic stocks within the fund assets also rose by 3 percentage points, from 18.1% to 21.1%, in just three months.
This is attributed to the sustained upward trend of the KOSPI, led by semiconductor stocks.
The NPS, which had been deeply concerned about the depletion of the fund, appears to have gained some breathing room as the size of its reserves has grown due to this stock market rally.
When the National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) published a report last June forecasting the fiscal and policy effects of parametric reforms to the National Pension, it projected that the fiscal balance would turn into a deficit in 2048 and the fund would be depleted by 2065.
However, in a report titled "Revised Fiscal Outlook for the National Pension Following Improved Fund Management Performance" released on the 18th, the NABO stated, "Reflecting the increase in reserves through 2025, the point at which the fiscal balance turns into a deficit has been delayed by two years, and the fund depletion point by four years," estimating the deficit transition to occur in 2050 and fund depletion in 2069.
The government also views the rise in domestic stocks as a factor that has delayed the expected depletion date of the fund.
Hyun Soo-yeop, First Vice Minister of Health and Welfare, attended a cabinet meeting last month and explained, "In the previous fiscal projection, the (expected depletion date) was 2071, but thanks to strong returns (in 2025), it has been tentatively pushed back by about seven years."
Nevertheless, some argue that even though the projected depletion date has been delayed, the sustainability of fund management remains limited, and unexpected market volatility could affect future performance, necessitating thorough preparation.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.